Report Compiled: 2020-04-25

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: 45909bb Max Data Date: 2020-04-24

NYT Repo Commit: 4563ec7 Max Data Date: 2020-04-24

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-05 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 387.7138 711.8720 1693.2161
2020-06-05 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 387.7138 711.8720 1693.2161
2020-06-05 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 546.6568 1238.3240 3224.9445
2020-06-05 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 546.6568 1238.3240 3224.9445
2020-06-05 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 280.2348 1511.7240 28534.2424
2020-06-05 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 527.1038 1554.6172 8587.7591
2020-06-05 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 320.5166 1177.4725 5618.7594
2020-06-05 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 557.8574 1974.5456 7362.6182
2020-06-05 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 572.5766 1417.9707 8392.7144
2020-06-05 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 572.5766 1417.9707 8392.7144
2020-06-05 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 519.6271 1492.6657 4879.9780
2020-06-05 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 519.6271 1492.6657 4879.9780
2020-06-05 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 222.3005 378.1813 744.6947
2020-06-05 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 222.3005 378.1813 744.6947
2020-06-05 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 284.4741 712.9956 2215.5717
2020-06-05 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 284.4741 712.9956 2215.5717
2020-05-09 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 192.6516 271.1177 1050.1615
2020-05-09 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 189.6458 270.7383 410.5921
2020-05-09 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 155.0598 247.5525 413.9657
2020-05-09 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 174.0160 287.0356 433.4364